I think there are a lot of parallels to my home country, Germany, at least when considering the outcome. The obvious one might be a lingering sense of pride in past glory (no, not that one) - "German engineering", when in reality, public infrastructure is in poor shape, most major new projects are disasters (over time and over budget by multiples), and the trains are apparently even worse than in the UK (at least that's what they say here: https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/you-think-british-trains-are-bad-try-german-ones , though I haven't vetted the source).
I would say that the mentality in Germany is markedly different. There's generally no "stiff upper lip" culture, people complain about politics and politicians a fair bit. Some conservative politicians sometimes make similar statements to the quoted one, and considerable outrage usually ensues. However, and surprisingly, worrying too much about one's own economic situation is somehow unfashionable: recent GDP growth stats paint a pretty bleak picture when comparing Germany to other western nations, but it's almost as if people don't believe in that being an indicator for anything meaningful - after all, we're such a rich country, right?
I've lived in the states for four years. The US is certainly no utopia, more to the contrary in some regards, but there certainly is a very significant difference in mentality in that most people, even those from lower socio-economic backgrounds, have a much stronger belief in being masters of their own fate. It would be a stretch to say that the American Dream is alive and kicking, certainly not for all demographic groups, but I think it by and large remains an important source of fuel for progress for the country overall. In contrast, Germans have pretty much fallen prey to learned helplessness, and maybe this also plays a part in the UK.
Anecdotally, I would say that housing scarcity/unaffordability in urban centers (especially Berlin, to some extent Hamburg and Cologne, and Munich is just expensive in general) is probably the perceived #1 problem among young people. All governments routinely promise to build more public, subsidized housing, and they always fall markedly short of their goals.
But: Personally, I still don't think it's anywhere near as bad as in major metros in other (including European) countries. People rooming after finishing university really isn't much of a thing, and some of my German friends even found the depiction of such an arrangement among full-time employed people in The Big Bang Theory unrealistic. So, yeah, on an objective scale you certainly are correct.
Also see 'Tragedy & Challenge: An Inside View of UK Engineering's Decline and the Challenge of the Brexit Economy', by Tom Brown. The author has worked in British manufacturing at levels ranging from night shift manager to Managing Director.
'Tom Brown analyses the causes of the decline in UK engineering, considering its poor leadership, original analysis of the detrimental effects of government economic policy, and the destructive influence of the City including an insider's uninhibited view of fund managers, analysts, and private equity. The author concludes that, while some decline was inevitable due to global factors, the example of Germany shows it did not need to be nearly so precipitate; some responsibility lies with management and the unions, but ultimately poor governments, the City, and decaying social attitudes were to blame, and now Brexit makes the prognosis even more daunting.'
We read it as one of the selections for my (zoom-based) book club, and it was very worthwhile.
The view you get of England from within the Cambridge bubble is different to that which the English experience. There are reasons that the English don't want the planning systems to be reformed. Yes, the cost of housing is a market signal, but it is not clear that the answer is as simple as building more housing.
I would not use growth in "renewable" energy as a main indicator. However, I agree on the UK's decline. The last 7 years are just part of it. I left the country for the USA back in 1987, and things had already been bad for some time.
In my extraordinarily humble opinion, you've focused on the symptom, not the disease. The 'spirit' is not stagnation, but malevolent destruction. Critical race theory, cultural marxism, decolonisation, obsessive identity madness,...
I don't know, living within your means sounds like a virtuous idea to me. I've seen millionaires who live paycheck to paycheck, and every person who is unable to manage their personal financial exposure increases the pain we will all bear during the next downturn.
I get your point that conservatives are not prioritizing growth, but surely a tweet recognizing a person for exercising financial discipline can't be the worst of the year.
You live in a dysfunctional city, run for the college dons by compliant council civil servants who got rich investing in rental property or just appreciation. Ive lived in both oxbridge and the incompetence of planning is palpable. It doesnt help that students occupy so much property, vote labour and don’t pay council tax.
The UK, like many Western economies, suffers from a distorted view of company economics that flows from overemphasis on financial accounting and the economic illiteracy of many finance practitioners inside those companies. That is not helped by the relative economic illiteracy of many in the banking community, especially at the more junior levels. The inability of the banking community to clearly see company economics must be excused, to some extent, because they must rely on numbers provided by the operating companies that they serve or wish to serve.
Great essay. Plus, you've got some really informed comments here. One thing to remember about the UK is that we are probably one of the most service sector orientated economies in the world. This presents unique problems, especially given our over-reliance on the finance sector.
Generally, the story of Europe is similar to that of the UK. Germany and Sweden are notable exceptions, but I think many underestimate the extent to which German energy policy will have an adverse effect on Germany's traditional export surplus economy.
It draws some accurate observations on the relationship between innovation, technology, manufacturing and productivity gains. It also correctly highlights the link between service sector economics and economic stagnation. My biggest quibble is that it constructs a mythology about high tech service sector innovation- when most of the productivity growth in this area is actually the creative destruction of service sector labour- stagnant and obsolete models like those seen in legacy media being displaced by newer models which may hold greater value for the consumer, but don't generate similar levels of revenue through pricing.
Underlying all this is one simple fact- we British have always been great at innovating but terrible at monetising innovation. What makes matters worse is that we still persist in the deeply misguided myth that anyone can be educated to do anything, that we can become a design-only economy, engaging in the wishful thinking of Blank Slatism to the extent that it's encompassing our economic doom.
For those who've been following the likely mineral limiting factors of the EV revolution which is structurally incapable of displaced ICE vehicles, it is worth noting that recent research and innovation by Toyota for a new prototype hydrogen pick-up was developed right here in the UK in collaboration with the Advanced Propulsion Centre.
Does anyone seriously think that scaled hydrogen pick-up manufacturing will actually be located here, in the UK?
Arm Holdings created the platform of technology which powered the creation of smartphones as well as the expanding plethora of relatively cheap tablets. It was worth only around 3,000 jobs for the UK and a roughly similar number of jobs internationally. Why? Because we persist in the nonsense that the UK can evolve to become a design-only economy- an activity which only 2% of the workforce is fit for, and another 8% can support at a level above minimum wage levels.
I wouldn't worry too much about mineral limiting factors in EV development. Back in the 90s, people argued that we were going to run out of oil any day. When something becomes important we get better at finding and extracting it. Also, battery tech is changing rapidly and the materials we use today won't be the same ones we use in 20 years.
Sure, that's a good point. We only use around 1/7th of the aluminium in a coke can that we once did. I guess you've read, or are at least aware of, Marian Tupy's Superabundance. Unfortunately, one of the major sources of Lithium in the world, Chile, has recently decided to make lithium extraction a nationalised industry. This in itself is not necessarily a problem- provided, of course, they quickly privatise it in the same way Norway privatised Statoil.
My point would be this- in order to meet demand, the world is going to need to at least x10 mining. Process efficiencies and innovation might cut this figure in half in the next ten years, but with China funding ecoprotest movements in any country which might want to create a parallel mineral supply infrastructure- a technique which has proved extraordinarily successful, especially in the US and the West- it's difficult to see how EVs are really going to scale.
Plus, even if Toyota are wrong more generally about hydrogen cells being the better option for displacing ICE vehicles, they won't be wrong for pickups, larger vans and other utility vehicles. And yes, I have seen the Tesla cybertruck- but it doesn't have anywhere near the volume of space necessary to compete with other types of pickups. Don't get me wrong- if anyone can crack that market, it will be Elon Musk. The man's the modern Hephaestus- a literal god of engineering.
I realise there is no reason why two clever, young Romanian women who have both lived in England should know each other - yet I still wondered if you did.
Really interesting read, thank you.
I think there are a lot of parallels to my home country, Germany, at least when considering the outcome. The obvious one might be a lingering sense of pride in past glory (no, not that one) - "German engineering", when in reality, public infrastructure is in poor shape, most major new projects are disasters (over time and over budget by multiples), and the trains are apparently even worse than in the UK (at least that's what they say here: https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/you-think-british-trains-are-bad-try-german-ones , though I haven't vetted the source).
I would say that the mentality in Germany is markedly different. There's generally no "stiff upper lip" culture, people complain about politics and politicians a fair bit. Some conservative politicians sometimes make similar statements to the quoted one, and considerable outrage usually ensues. However, and surprisingly, worrying too much about one's own economic situation is somehow unfashionable: recent GDP growth stats paint a pretty bleak picture when comparing Germany to other western nations, but it's almost as if people don't believe in that being an indicator for anything meaningful - after all, we're such a rich country, right?
I've lived in the states for four years. The US is certainly no utopia, more to the contrary in some regards, but there certainly is a very significant difference in mentality in that most people, even those from lower socio-economic backgrounds, have a much stronger belief in being masters of their own fate. It would be a stretch to say that the American Dream is alive and kicking, certainly not for all demographic groups, but I think it by and large remains an important source of fuel for progress for the country overall. In contrast, Germans have pretty much fallen prey to learned helplessness, and maybe this also plays a part in the UK.
Interesting, thanks for the input. I know very little abt Germany, but it seems at least the housing there is better :)
Anecdotally, I would say that housing scarcity/unaffordability in urban centers (especially Berlin, to some extent Hamburg and Cologne, and Munich is just expensive in general) is probably the perceived #1 problem among young people. All governments routinely promise to build more public, subsidized housing, and they always fall markedly short of their goals.
But: Personally, I still don't think it's anywhere near as bad as in major metros in other (including European) countries. People rooming after finishing university really isn't much of a thing, and some of my German friends even found the depiction of such an arrangement among full-time employed people in The Big Bang Theory unrealistic. So, yeah, on an objective scale you certainly are correct.
There's an interesting but depressing book: 'English Culture and the Decline of the Industrial Spirit, 1850–1980', by Martin Wiener.
https://www.semanticscholar.org/paper/English-Culture-and-the-Decline-of-the-Industrial-Wiener/825298beda27fca5eeb7cbe0a31302877e318e2e
Thanks this does sound depressing
Also see 'Tragedy & Challenge: An Inside View of UK Engineering's Decline and the Challenge of the Brexit Economy', by Tom Brown. The author has worked in British manufacturing at levels ranging from night shift manager to Managing Director.
'Tom Brown analyses the causes of the decline in UK engineering, considering its poor leadership, original analysis of the detrimental effects of government economic policy, and the destructive influence of the City including an insider's uninhibited view of fund managers, analysts, and private equity. The author concludes that, while some decline was inevitable due to global factors, the example of Germany shows it did not need to be nearly so precipitate; some responsibility lies with management and the unions, but ultimately poor governments, the City, and decaying social attitudes were to blame, and now Brexit makes the prognosis even more daunting.'
We read it as one of the selections for my (zoom-based) book club, and it was very worthwhile.
Interesting, thank you!
The view you get of England from within the Cambridge bubble is different to that which the English experience. There are reasons that the English don't want the planning systems to be reformed. Yes, the cost of housing is a market signal, but it is not clear that the answer is as simple as building more housing.
Why?
I’m glad you’re pressing this issue. Let the NIMBYs explain why it is that more housing will do nothing to lower housing costs.
I would not use growth in "renewable" energy as a main indicator. However, I agree on the UK's decline. The last 7 years are just part of it. I left the country for the USA back in 1987, and things had already been bad for some time.
Yeah agreed, that was just another plot showing something going bad but deleted it. Thanksb
In my extraordinarily humble opinion, you've focused on the symptom, not the disease. The 'spirit' is not stagnation, but malevolent destruction. Critical race theory, cultural marxism, decolonisation, obsessive identity madness,...
I don't know, living within your means sounds like a virtuous idea to me. I've seen millionaires who live paycheck to paycheck, and every person who is unable to manage their personal financial exposure increases the pain we will all bear during the next downturn.
I get your point that conservatives are not prioritizing growth, but surely a tweet recognizing a person for exercising financial discipline can't be the worst of the year.
You live in a dysfunctional city, run for the college dons by compliant council civil servants who got rich investing in rental property or just appreciation. Ive lived in both oxbridge and the incompetence of planning is palpable. It doesnt help that students occupy so much property, vote labour and don’t pay council tax.
not sure, Cambridge is one of the most lively and nice towns I have visited in UK
The UK, like many Western economies, suffers from a distorted view of company economics that flows from overemphasis on financial accounting and the economic illiteracy of many finance practitioners inside those companies. That is not helped by the relative economic illiteracy of many in the banking community, especially at the more junior levels. The inability of the banking community to clearly see company economics must be excused, to some extent, because they must rely on numbers provided by the operating companies that they serve or wish to serve.
Great essay. Plus, you've got some really informed comments here. One thing to remember about the UK is that we are probably one of the most service sector orientated economies in the world. This presents unique problems, especially given our over-reliance on the finance sector.
Generally, the story of Europe is similar to that of the UK. Germany and Sweden are notable exceptions, but I think many underestimate the extent to which German energy policy will have an adverse effect on Germany's traditional export surplus economy.
This is a pretty dense read from the ECB:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/pub/economic-bulletin/articles/2021/html/ecb.ebart202107_02~c95a8477e1.en.html
It draws some accurate observations on the relationship between innovation, technology, manufacturing and productivity gains. It also correctly highlights the link between service sector economics and economic stagnation. My biggest quibble is that it constructs a mythology about high tech service sector innovation- when most of the productivity growth in this area is actually the creative destruction of service sector labour- stagnant and obsolete models like those seen in legacy media being displaced by newer models which may hold greater value for the consumer, but don't generate similar levels of revenue through pricing.
Underlying all this is one simple fact- we British have always been great at innovating but terrible at monetising innovation. What makes matters worse is that we still persist in the deeply misguided myth that anyone can be educated to do anything, that we can become a design-only economy, engaging in the wishful thinking of Blank Slatism to the extent that it's encompassing our economic doom.
For those who've been following the likely mineral limiting factors of the EV revolution which is structurally incapable of displaced ICE vehicles, it is worth noting that recent research and innovation by Toyota for a new prototype hydrogen pick-up was developed right here in the UK in collaboration with the Advanced Propulsion Centre.
https://media.toyota.co.uk/toyota-reveals-british-built-hydrogen-fuelled-hilux-prototype-pick-up/
Does anyone seriously think that scaled hydrogen pick-up manufacturing will actually be located here, in the UK?
Arm Holdings created the platform of technology which powered the creation of smartphones as well as the expanding plethora of relatively cheap tablets. It was worth only around 3,000 jobs for the UK and a roughly similar number of jobs internationally. Why? Because we persist in the nonsense that the UK can evolve to become a design-only economy- an activity which only 2% of the workforce is fit for, and another 8% can support at a level above minimum wage levels.
I wouldn't worry too much about mineral limiting factors in EV development. Back in the 90s, people argued that we were going to run out of oil any day. When something becomes important we get better at finding and extracting it. Also, battery tech is changing rapidly and the materials we use today won't be the same ones we use in 20 years.
Sure, that's a good point. We only use around 1/7th of the aluminium in a coke can that we once did. I guess you've read, or are at least aware of, Marian Tupy's Superabundance. Unfortunately, one of the major sources of Lithium in the world, Chile, has recently decided to make lithium extraction a nationalised industry. This in itself is not necessarily a problem- provided, of course, they quickly privatise it in the same way Norway privatised Statoil.
My point would be this- in order to meet demand, the world is going to need to at least x10 mining. Process efficiencies and innovation might cut this figure in half in the next ten years, but with China funding ecoprotest movements in any country which might want to create a parallel mineral supply infrastructure- a technique which has proved extraordinarily successful, especially in the US and the West- it's difficult to see how EVs are really going to scale.
Plus, even if Toyota are wrong more generally about hydrogen cells being the better option for displacing ICE vehicles, they won't be wrong for pickups, larger vans and other utility vehicles. And yes, I have seen the Tesla cybertruck- but it doesn't have anywhere near the volume of space necessary to compete with other types of pickups. Don't get me wrong- if anyone can crack that market, it will be Elon Musk. The man's the modern Hephaestus- a literal god of engineering.
I realise there is no reason why two clever, young Romanian women who have both lived in England should know each other - yet I still wondered if you did.
nah! Also, I think our vibes are very different
Apropros of nothing, do you know Alex Kaschuta?
saw her on twitter